ALPHAGBM / INSIGHTS

Market Insights

Market developments, examined through data.

How to Choose an AI Research Tool for China A-Shares: Six Checks
Test an A-share AI research tool against a real annual report: identifiers, dates, sources, profit definitions, uncertainty and reproducible records.
2026-10-20 · A-share
How Many GPUs Can a 100 MW Data Center Support? Define the Power Boundary First
A 100 MW facility supports about 45,000 GPUs under explicit rack-power and overhead assumptions. See why IT capacity, annual PUE and commissioned capacity differ.
2026-10-19 · U.S.
Micron FY2026 capex differs by $3.345 billion. What do gross and net measure?
Micron FY2026 gross cash spending was $30.712 billion versus $27.367 billion of net capex. We reconcile the $3.345 billion gap and use a hypothetical receipt delay to show why net spending changes cannot directly measure capacity changes.
2026-10-16 · U.S.
Does a near-15% CoreWeave bond yield reprice all its debt?
As of October 14, 2026 US information, distinguish a media-reported bond yield from fixed coupons and new funding costs, and trace the conditional link to AI capital spending and supplier orders.
2026-10-14 · U.S.
Samsung bought 6.70% more shares than planned. Did the budget increase?
Samsung’s October 12, 2026 buyback results show 6.70% more shares than estimated but KRW 92,250 less spending. Reconciling 29 daily records and the weighted price explains the quantity difference, without treating compensation-purpose treasury shares as cancelled.
2026-10-13 · U.S.
October 12 Korea Memory Flows: Does Foreign Selling Prove a Sector-Wide Exit?
At the October 12, 2026 Korean close, foreign investors sold both SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, while institutional flows diverged. Volume-normalized flows and closing-price value proxies separate a common foreign-selling signal from an unproven sector-wide exit.
2026-10-12 · U.S.
October 8 Semiconductor Selloff: Why Did Memory Stocks Underperform SMH by About 2 Points?
At the October 8, 2026 U.S. close, an equal-weighted Micron and SanDisk basket fell 4.85%, 2.01 percentage points more than the SMH semiconductor ETF. The gap supports a two-layer description—semiconductors were weak and memory was weaker—but does not identify a one-day cause. We use broad-market, growth, and non-technology sector ETFs as checks and set out what to verify next.
2026-10-09 · U.S.
Samsung Q3 2026 Operating Profit Rose 20%: How Much Came From Margin Expansion?
Using Samsung’s preliminary October 8, 2026 disclosure, consolidated Q3 operating margin rose about 2.90 percentage points from Q2. A revenue-first bridge assigns KRW 5.65 trillion of the KRW 17.91 trillion profit increase to margin expansion, or 31.53%; this is not HBM attribution or proof of durable growth.
2026-10-08 · U.S.
Samsung's Buyback Ends: Why Missing Demand Is Not New Selling
October 7, 2026 review: Samsung's buyback reportedly ended on October 6. Approximately KRW 15 trillion over 29 sessions implies historical average buying of KRW 517.24 billion, not next-day selling or other corporations' net buying. Conditional scenarios separate past purchase rates from hypothetical missing demand and unverified price effects.
2026-10-07 · U.S.
PANW FY2026 Q4: why did adjusted profit rise 26.7% but EPS only 7.4%?
For the quarter ended July 31, 2026, Palo Alto Networks grew adjusted net income 26.7% but adjusted diluted EPS only 7.4%. We reconstruct the impact of a 17.7% increase in the matching share count, retain rounding differences, and explain why this alone cannot establish acquisition value creation or destruction.
2026-10-06 · U.S.
Micron HBM4 Offers More Than Twice the Bandwidth. Does That Mean Twice the Revenue?
Micron HBM4 and HBM3E 12-high products both hold 36GB, so higher bandwidth is not a revenue-growth multiplier. Separating volume, capacity and realized price shows that, at unchanged capacity and an assumed 30% price increase, doubling revenue requires approximately 53.85% more volume. This is a reproducible scenario, not a company forecast.
2026-10-05 · U.S.
SMH Is Up While Micron and SanDisk Are Down: Just Opening Gaps, or Weakness After the Open?
An October 1, 2026 intraday decomposition: MU and SNDK lag SMH by 1.37 and 0.50 points after the open. Testing whether opening gaps explain their relative weakness.
2026-10-01 · U.S.
Do Micron and SanDisk lead just because they beat SMH? A dual-benchmark check against QQQ
On September 30, 2026, the intraday MU/SNDK average gained 0.52%: +0.58 pp versus SMH but -0.08 pp versus QQQ. A same-snapshot decomposition tests what semiconductor outperformance really establishes.
2026-09-30 · U.S.
Why Did Micron's Implied Volatility Jump From 60% to 91% in One Day? Not Fear: The Nearest Expiry Now Spans the Sept 30 Earnings
In the 2026-09-24 session Micron's (MU) at-the-money implied volatility jumped from 59.9% to 90.9% as the nearest expiry rolled from 09-28 to 10-02, the first contract to span the 09-30 earnings date. Isolating earnings-day variance, options price Micron's post-earnings move at roughly ±10.5% to ±11.7% (one standard deviation). Controls confirm it: SanDisk and Western Digital did not roll, fell 3.5%–4.9%, and saw IV decline; AMD and NVIDIA rolled into non-earnings contracts and IV moved only 1–3 points. Protection demand sits in indexes (SPY and QQQ put/call above 1), with every single stock except Western Digital (1.02) below 1. Verdict: event pricing, not fear pricing, with falsification conditions.
2026-09-25 · U.S.
Why Didn't Options Get More Expensive After Two Down Sessions? All Nine Tickers Sit in the Bottom Two IV Deciles, and the Hardest-Hit Name Has the Least Protection
In the 2026-09-23 session both U.S. and Hong Kong equities fell across the board, with declines ordered strictly monotonically by risk exposure: the U.S. ran from S&P 500 at −0.72% down to SanDisk at −3.73%, while Hong Kong ran from Jiangxi Copper at −0.41% down to Alibaba at −4.36%. Yet implied-volatility percentiles for all nine U.S. tickers sat in the bottom two deciles of a self-collected sample (high 19.7, low 0.8; n=99–128 trading days, series start 2026-03-20), and NVIDIA's IV was 10.70 points below its own 20-day realized volatility. Genuine hedging bids up protection costs; that did not happen, so the character is de-risking rather than hedging. More counterintuitive still is the inverted protection bid: the Spearman rank correlation between change and put/call ratio is ρ=+0.65 (n=9, a descriptive cross-sectional statistic rather than a significance test), meaning the more a name fell the less protection was bought on it. Micron fell 2.22% yet carries the table's lowest put/call ratio at 0.369, while TSMC at 1.344 and the Nasdaq 100 at 1.276 — the tier that fell least — carry the highest. Micron reports FQ4 earnings after the close on 2026-09-30, just four trading days out, with both its IV percentile of 8.7 and put/call ratio of 0.369 at the bottom of the table. The article also documents a CCASS 'net change' data trap with full-table evidence: of four Hong Kong tickers showing positive headline net change, two flip negative once newly-entered participants are excluded, including Tencent.
2026-09-24 · U.S.