Morgan Stanley Flags U.S. Data-Center Power Gap and Deployment Risks for ASICs and Components
2026-10-07 · 3 min read · AlphaGBM
At a glance
Morgan Stanley’s latest report estimates that U.S. data centers could face a net power shortfall of about 34%, equivalent to 32GW, from 2026 through 2028, as electricity availability becomes a key constraint on AI infrastructure deployment. The report says NVIDIA and Broadcom have relatively strong visibility into where their products will ultimately be installed and can reduce reliance on the U.S. through their global footprints; it therefore sees no material effect on their 2027 earnings forecasts for now. By comparison, lower-output-per-unit-of-power ASICs, along with memory, optical components, power-management products and analog chips, could be more exposed to project delays, inventory digestion and subsequent order adjustments. Oracle’s planned 1.3GW “Project Lighthouse” in Wisconsin was cited in the article as an illustration: after the transmission approval process restarted, full-power delivery could be delayed until October 2028 at the earliest, or until spring 2029 under a pessimistic scenario. The report projects about 19GW of additional behind-the-meter gas-turbine and engine capacity from 2026 to 2028, plus roughly 6GW from Bloom Energy fuel cells, but says these additions would still not close the gap. Broadcom’s FY27 AI revenue outlook also shifted from well above $100 billion in March to $115 billion in September.
Summary
Morgan Stanley’s latest report estimates that U.S. data centers could face a net power shortfall of about 34%, equivalent to 32GW, from 2026 through 2028, as electricity availability becomes a key constraint on AI infrastructure deployment. The report says NVIDIA and Broadcom have relatively strong visibility into where their products will ultimately be installed and can reduce reliance on the U.S. through their global footprints; it therefore sees no material effect on their 2027 earnings forecasts for now. By comparison, lower-output-per-unit-of-power ASICs, along with memory, optical components, power-management products and analog chips, could be more exposed to project delays, inventory digestion and subsequent order adjustments. Oracle’s planned 1.3GW “Project Lighthouse” in Wisconsin was cited in the article as an illustration: after the transmission approval process restarted, full-power delivery could be delayed until October 2028 at the earliest, or until spring 2029 under a pessimistic scenario. The report projects about 19GW of additional behind-the-meter gas-turbine and engine capacity from 2026 to 2028, plus roughly 6GW from Bloom Energy fuel cells, but says these additions would still not close the gap. Broadcom’s FY27 AI revenue outlook also shifted from well above $100 billion in March to $115 billion in September.